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Old 05-12-2020, 03:45 PM   #583
Derek Sutton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie View Post
I've heard that most NBA regional deals have clauses that give 100% revenue if the team plays 70 games. It seems likely that a similar structure might be in place with the NHL, considering how many stakeholders overlap (ie. it's the standard structure for an 82 gp league).

If that were true, NJD and BUF are the only teams outside of the presumptive 24 team format who did not reach the 70 gp mark. But there are a few big markets <70: VAN, PIT, PHI...and WAS, MIN, NAS, DAL, CAR, NYI, FLA.


Another thing that is interesting, exactly 24 teams are considered to have odds >0.0% of making the playoffs on this link. Of course MTL are 0.1% and CHI are 2.5%, but it's neat how that has shaken out.

7 teams are >98.8%
10 more teams are > 93.4 % (5 East, 5 West...sadly including the Oilers as the 93.4)

79.2 CAR
74.9 TOR
70.0 VAN
65.7 CGY

57.0 WIN
56.6 NYI
55.3 NAS
48.9 MIN

37.9 FLA
33.6 CBJ

21.8 NYR
13.0 ARI

2.5 CHI
0.1 MTL


As much as we can parse the current standings, this might be a more accurate/fair picture of where things stand. One thing I would not like to see is CHI or MTL given the same blank slate/even odds of making the final 16 as DAL/PIT/EDM, who were essentially 'in'. Nor should ARI/NYR have an equal path to 16 as a team with >70% odds.
Except this is not the case in the NHL. Regional TV deals are a tiny, tiny, tiny revenue source. The money comes from national TV which is heavily weighted on playoff games, Bettaman himself said this and was discussed weeks/ pages ago.
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