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Originally Posted by fleury
I dunno. AC seems to be a longer hold to recover then most. Even the CEOs last statement about laying employees off was pretty cryptic along the lines of, "we'll try and get the company to hold up during this time". Guaranteed the government will have to bail them out, but when will travel be fully normalized around the world by governments? And when will people feel fully comfortable to travel on a regular basis? I'd guess that's 2.5 years away, and that's just to get going - profitability comes after. I'd put my money elsewhere personally. Seems like such a gamble with not much upside compared to other stocks.
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I agree with your position (basically said the same thing). But as far as it taking 2.5 years for flying to return to normal, I would bet that it is much less.
After 9/11, where they literally turned commercial jets into weapons and blew people up, everyone felt that flying would never fully recover. I remember having those conversations myself, and thinking it would be a very, very long time before things returned to anything close to normal.
But then I found myself flying to Costa Rica (through the US) just a few months later. Sure, there were soldiers in the airports. But people started flying again, and got on with their lives. In fairly short order.