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Originally Posted by VilleN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6MZy-2fcBw This doesn't have to do with sports, but it is an interesting perspective on this pandemic... I've been hesitant to post this elsewhere because I want to hear what other people think of this... I'm having a hard time poking holes in it, but I haven't really dug into whether his claims are correct... but he is a Stanford professor so I think he's pretty reputable.
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Thanks for posting, it's a worthwhile watch and I'll give my 2 cents from the perspective of a physician comfortable evaluating medical evidence (and as someone who has read a lot on Covid):
His points on population studies and why they are so important are salient. He gives a good summary on what as been done in Iceland and the small Italian town (don't recall the name). The cliff notes version is that by looking at large random populations, there are a number of asymptomatic individuals testing positive, who in turn lower the true mortality of the disease. He also discusses the Princess Diamond, where of 3500 aboard, 700 get infected and 7 die. He highlights how much we don't know about the virus. The actual mortality rate is most certainly below the 2-3% originally cited by the WHO, and most likely will fall below 1% in post hoc analyses.
Where he fails in his analysis is his evaluation of Italy (attributing disaster there to age, smoking, the soccer match, yada yada), and the appreciation to the degree Covid can potentially devastate ANY community. This is where Fauci has been much more astute. Mortality numbers at the end of the day may be more encouraging (between 0.1-1.0%), but there is so much more unquestioned morbidity from Covid than any Flu virus we have encountered. Every large city is seeing numbers of people age 30-50 admitted to hospital, many even needing ICU or intubation. See New Orleans (Mardi Gras?) See New York right now. See Seattle. See Wuhan. See Spain, see France. Don't think it can happen in Calgary? See what's happening in the town of Albany, Georgia, a city of less than 100k.
No one really knows, but right now by enforcing closures and social distancing we are buying time to hopefully start figuring this out. You do not need to be a doctor, scientist or epidemiologist to recognize that Covid has the ability to COLLAPSE a health care system like no other virus we have encountered in our lifetimes. I'll be back when I have a little more time to give my thoughts on where I think this is headed, again for whatever little that's worth...