Quote:
Originally Posted by VilleN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6MZy-2fcBw This doesn't have to do with sports, but it is an interesting perspective on this pandemic... I've been hesitant to post this elsewhere because I want to hear what other people think of this... I'm having a hard time poking holes in it, but I haven't really dug into whether his claims are correct... but he is a Stanford professor so I think he's pretty reputable.
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He makes a lot of good points. I think we all have to realize just how little we understand about this virus - our data is woefully incomplete, so it's hard to make informed long-term policy decisions.
In the short term, we have to do two things:
1) Ramp up the social distancing + lockdown measures until the spread stops. Figuring out what it takes to get this under control in a bunch of different countries will be crucial data to inform long-term decisions.
2) Ramp up serological testing until you can make an accurate assessment of the real infection rate.
Lots of studies out there with conflicting data and we really need to hone in on the truth. There's a huge difference between a virus with r0 = 2.5 and a 2% mortality rate from a virus with r0 = 7 and a 0.1% mortality rate, or a virus with r0 = 25 and a 0.05% mortality rate (and I've seen studies estimating it at all 3 places).