Quote:
Originally Posted by fleury
Personally, I think there's a ways to go on this correction. In 2008 the market dropped roughly 50%. What makes us think this is lesser of an issue? It relates to health, it's highly contagious, it shows no effects for a few days, and the result is it affects our economy through people not being able to work out of a rational fear. I few days ago I was thinking to myself what the outcome could be and I can't think of anything positive short of a vaccine. And that's 18 months away. So for the minds brighter than mine, at some point the economy may be doing what Italy is doing, and at what point will it be safe to go back to work? It's really the ultimate question in determining when you can normalize your economy.
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I actually think a bigger positive is anti-virals and treatments/recoveries. A vaccine would be great news also, but if we had a great treatment and a lot of recoveries it would do a lot to calm some fears.
And as far as finding a bottom, it's basically impossible. I worked through 2008-09 in this industry, and let me remind you that there was nothing special about March 9,2009. It was just another day, with no particularly glaring news. Just that day, for some reason, people bought more than the sold and they kept doing that. That's how the bottom works. It's possible that one major policy announcement coincides with the bottom, or one piece of bad news that people take as not quite so bad is the bottom, but it's not likely. The old saying is that bottom pickers just get smelly fingers.
(And futures went from pretty solidly green to close to limit down last time I looked...)