I sold my company bank shares at a 25% loss compared to 3 weeks ago this morning. First time doing selling in 13 years, but I needed it for a July home closing. I personally can see this going at least 10% lower. In North America we're not used to this type of hardship, and anything that gets sensationalized in the news will ultimate show up through the stock market. Once deaths start showing in the "1st world" it'll change the game. Things are starting to look dire and we're really not sure what the work world will look like - especially for front line people who have to be at stores and customer facing to make a living. I'm actually very very surprised that every economy hasn't shut down borders and self isolated in for long term benefit. There's also a bullwhip effect in a situation like this. Panic is setting in but when companies actually start showing losses that will be a few months ahead before we see that. That will be the icing on the cake when people fully understand the magnitude of this on the economy. Look at the 2008 crisis - it was a solid 4 months before things were realized on the bottoming out of the market. This has the potential to continue longer, so I can't see how this is a 4 month recovery on the stock market. I have a short term perspective because of my situation, but even if you have long term vision, why wouldn't you buy in later? There's no light at the end of the tunnel at the very least in the next month, so why buy in now when it can go lower?
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