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Originally Posted by surferguy
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One thing that's essential to understand:
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the number of true cases [...] is likely to be between one and two orders or magnitude higher than it is officially reported.
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When there was 444 official cases in Wuhan, we now know there was actually about 12,000 (27x higher). So waiting until we have a large number of official cases is too late. Especially since, as I posted earlier, cancelling things early vs. late is the difference between 50 in 100,000 vs. 250 in 100,000 people dying (St. Louis vs. Philadelphia during the 1918 spanish flu).