Quote:
Originally Posted by Duffalufagus
The US is going to have a rude awakening in the next couple of weeks. The testing has been non-existent and the country is being told by its leadership that this is no big deal.
If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.
All sporting events are going to be affected big time going forward. You can’t lie and spin your way out of science.
|
I think consensus is maybe 4,000 cases in US at this time, most of which are mild but also undetected. But it doubles to triples every week and US won't have full nationwide testing available for anywhere for 2-8 weeks. Unfortunately, when exponential growth is 100% per week, that 6 weeks is the difference between Korea (who has the problem under control) and Italy (which has done full scale lock downs and has a hospital system that is leaving old people and young people with preexisting conditions to die)
4,000 x (2^2 weeks) = 16,000 - no big deal
4,000 x (2^8 weeks) = 1,000,000 cases - near nationwide lock-downs are an inevitability unless they do aggressive social distancing