Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
Yup. But I think we'll find the numbers are about to blow up in many major cities in the US. I guess we just have to wait a week or two and see. I was more making the point that claims of there only being 30 cases in major cities are just massively underreporting the actual amount of cases because the testing has not caught up to the virus spread. NYC for example hadn't been able to test anybody until recently. How can you know how many cases there are if you aren't testing?
The doctor in the Australian 60 minutes piece said there should be 80-100 cases for each death. So lets follow the death count closely and we'll be able to extrapolate from that the true extent of the spread. I guess that's about all we can do to try and guess at the numbers in the US since testing has been such a gong show down there.
My prediction is the crap is about to hit the fan in the US and we're gonna learn that this has spread quite widely already. Hopefully I'm wrong but I think all the information we have right now points that way.
|
I am highly concerned, but it's one of those things where you can find evidence to change your opinion from scared to less worried over and over and over again.
The reassuring things of the moment that stand out for me are:
1. As of yesterday, Alberta had a 1452 - to 7 + test ratio. Obviously 7 more cases today is troubling, but I imagine there were also hundred(s) more negative tests. Lots of people have had reason to worry that they had it, very few actually have.
2. This thing has existed for a few months now - it seems likely that if the worst-case scenario of really fast, uncontrollable spread were going to happen, that it probably already would have.
Just as it has only exploded in a few disparate regions of the world (SK, Iran, Italy), I think there's a good chance that's how it plays out in NA.