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Enoch Root · 03-05-2020, 03:34 PM

I always like to look at how many games over .500 each team is, as that doesn't get clouded by number of games played. Currently, the Flames are +9 (35W, 26L). There are 5 teams behind them that sit as follows:

VAN +8
MIN +7
WIN +6
ARI +6
NAS +6

Three of those teams have to pass them or they are in. And one of the 3 has to be VAN or ARI. So things look pretty good. As for games over .500, the likelihood of getting in shakes out as follows:

Finish +8: 25% (that means 1 game below .500, or 6-7-1, the rest of the way)
Finish +9: 50% (7-7-0)
Finish +10: 70-75%
Finish +11: 90% (93 points)
Finish +12: 97%
Finish +13: 100% (rounded), (4 games over, or 9-5-0)

Even if they only go 1 game over .500 the rest of the way (finishing with 92 pts), there is a very good chance they're in.

03-05-2020, 03:34 PM	#83
Enoch Root Franchise Player Join Date: May 2012 Exp:	I always like to look at how many games over .500 each team is, as that doesn't get clouded by number of games played. Currently, the Flames are +9 (35W, 26L). There are 5 teams behind them that sit as follows: VAN +8 MIN +7 WIN +6 ARI +6 NAS +6 Three of those teams have to pass them or they are in. And one of the 3 has to be VAN or ARI. So things look pretty good. As for games over .500, the likelihood of getting in shakes out as follows: Finish +8: 25% (that means 1 game below .500, or 6-7-1, the rest of the way) Finish +9: 50% (7-7-0) Finish +10: 70-75% Finish +11: 90% (93 points) Finish +12: 97% Finish +13: 100% (rounded), (4 games over, or 9-5-0) Even if they only go 1 game over .500 the rest of the way (finishing with 92 pts), there is a very good chance they're in.