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Originally Posted by nfotiu
I'm not really buying that explanation
There's only been 155 delegates determine so far, and 33 went to Amy and Pete that basically dead delegates now. 8 have gone to Warren which are all but dead. So say 41 dead delegates now. How many are Warren and Bloomberg really going to get tomorrow? More than 50-100 combined? Say they get 100 combined, and drop out after tomorrow. That's at most 150 dead delegates.
Once it becomes a 2 person race after Tuesday, it's going to have to end up a very tight 1990-1840 race or tighter for one of them not to have a majority. If either has a margin bigger than the dead delegates, they'll get a majority.
The 538 model must have Bloomberg and Warren continuing to pick up significant delegates going forward, and I just don't see that happening.
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You assume that Warren and Bloomberg drop out. The 538 model does not.