I think the main determinant for Ovechkin passing Gretzky is how long he can keep scoring ~50. If he finishes out this year at his current pace (57 goals), then averages 50 the next two, he's sitting at 815 going into his age 37 season and I think he'll be able to crank in 25-30 goals a season until he's 50 if he wants to as a PP specialist.
But if he drops off sooner it gets exponentially more difficult.
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