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Old 02-18-2020, 05:00 PM   #173
Flash Walken
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovaz View Post
On Bennett v Mangiapane:

If you look at their individual goal scoring, they have very similar rates. They're both among our team leaders in chances and goals per 60.

Expected individual goals / 60:
Mangiapane: 0.83
Bennett: 0.81

Individual goals / 60:
Mangiapane: 0.99
Bennett: 0.97

If you look at the chances their linemates get, they're also very similar:

Linemate expected goals / 60:
Mangiapane: 1.81
Bennett: 1.76

The big difference is how often those linemates score on their changes

Linemate goals / 60:
Mangiapane: 1.74
Bennett: 1.10


So Bennett and Mangiapane:
  • Both generate among the highest individual chance rates on the team
  • Both finish their chances about 20% higher than could be expected
  • Both generate above average amounts of chances for their linemates

Not hard to argue that playing a bunch of time with Tkachuk, Backlund and Lindholm rather than Jankowski, Rieder, and Rinaldo can more than explain the difference in points.
Now do penalties.
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