[mikephoen]

First, let me say that I don’t for a second think the Flames, or any other team, would actually do this. I do think the Flames are in a very unique position to try it, but it won’t happen. So this is more of a thought experiment.

The basic premise is to admit this rebuild failed and switch to a bottom out rebuild strategy while the current assets still have high value. The twist is to load up on draft picks that are one to two drafts out instead of trying to get picks for the upcoming draft. The reason the timing is right for the Flames to try this is to try to have an exciting team that’s either a contender or on the cusp of being a contender when the new building opens.

The overall goal has these key components:
• A large number of high-end players entering the league on entry level contracts at around the same time
• All of the bad money contracts and buyouts off the books
• A ton of cap space to sign a small number of very high end free agents or trade for high end players in their prime to supplement the entry level players
• Truly bottom out and get 2+ top 3 draft picks. Imagine if the current rebuild had bottomed out and picked McKinnon or Barkov instead of Monahan and Ekblad or Draisaitl instead of Bennett

The reason to target draft picks in the 2021 and 2022 drafts instead of the 2020 draft is three fold. First, teams don’t want to give up 2020 draft picks because the draft is said to be very deep, so it’s harder to acquire them. Second, and more important, there is much more uncertainty two or three years out, so you have a much higher chance of some of these picks ending up as top 5 or top 10 picks when the teams that traded them to us pull a San Jose or an Ottawa. Maybe you get really lucky and one or more of them end up top 3. Third, you want these young players entering the league after Lucic and Brouwer are off the books. Maximizing the cap space in those early entry level years allows the team to add a few high end vets to supplement key positions. Start too early and the dead money contracts might prevent the Flames from adding that Hossa-like player at the exact right time that their Kane, Toews and Kieth-like players are still on entry level deals.

The first step is to move out the current core and most other players that have value. That can be at the deadline this season, or at the draft if that opens a wider field of interested teams for top players.

Core players to move at the 2020 trade deadline or at the 2020 draft:

Johnny Gaudreau
Sean Monahan
Mikael Backlund
TJ Brodie
Travis Hamonic


All of these players get moved for draft picks, with a focus on 2021 and 2022 first rounders. Second and later round picks are also good, and can be in 2020 since those picks will take longer to develop. To help maximize the number of 1sts, the Flames can also take back some bad money contracts from teams, as long as none of the bad money extends past the last year of the Lucic contract. For example, Backlund’s value to a team like the Bruins goes way up if the Flames take back the horrible Backes contract from them.

With a goal of being an exciting young team in 22/23 and an actual contender in 23/24, the only current players that are likely to still be around are Thachuk, Lindholm (debatable), Andersson, Valimaki (if injuries haven’t derailed him) and some of our current 21 and under prospects. Maybe players like Dube, Mangiapane, or Kylington are also around.

So what about the rest? Here is what I would suggest:

Giordano -- Could go one of two ways. Let him play out his contract in Calgary if he wants as good veteran leadership will help this team to not become mired in perpetual rebuild like the oilers or Sabres. Or, if he wants to chase a cup, move him at the ’21 deadline or the ’22 deadline for picks and/or prospects.

Ryan – Move him at the ’21 deadline as a rental

Bennett and Jankowski -- Keep them this year, unless you get an offer dramatically better than their current play would warrant. Play them much further up the lineup in the ’20-’21 season and try to rebuild their value. Move them at the ’21 deadline for whatever you can get

Hanifin -- Give him lots of opportunity over the next couple seasons. If he improves, keep him with the intention of re-signing him. If he plateaus, look to move him for picks/prospects or a player for player trade depending on how far into the future you keep him.

Lucic, Stone, Rieder etc – If you can get anything for these guys, you take it

Kylington, Mangiapane, Dube, other current prospects -- Give them lots of opportunity to see what they can be. Depending on the results, they could still be here in 23/24 as vets, or they may have been moved in larger deals with current core players, or moved at previous deadlines if they aren’t in the future plans.


By the 23/24 season the team looks something like:

Tkachuk (C) - Top 3 pick - Elite Vet Free Agent
Pelletier – Lindholm (A) – 1st Round pick
Dube – 1st Rounder – graduated prospect
Graduated prospect – Vet Centre on short term contract (signed or traded for) – Graduated prospect

Elite Vet Free agent – Andersson (A)
Valimaki - Top 3 pick
Graduated prospect – vet on short term contract (signed or traded for)

2 goalies


Going forward from there, sign the elite players to long term contracts after their entry levels end and bridge or trade the lesser ones. With all the picks gained from now until 22/23 there should still be lots of good prospects in the AHL/college pushing to join the lineup or to use as trade bait to pick up another elite talent or fill holes as needed.

Tldr; Cash out the current team for picks. Bottom out for top picks in ’20-’21 and ’21-’22. Wait out the dead money contracts to be free and clear of them by ’23-’24 in the new building. Use the ample cap room to get one or two elite free agents to supplement the top draft picks, Tkachuk, Andersson and Lindholm. Profit.