I went with the budgets on wiki, which are production budgets. How much movies actually cost and how budgets are managed is largely shrouded in secrecy (in order to maintain a good grift), so I figure sole sourcing wiki for budgets is about as good as I can do.
I heard the budget was $100M minus a $12M tax credit, but I'd imagine most big films receive some type of tax incentive. So I figure $100M is good enough for napkin calculations.
If "the bottom falls out" in the second weekend, that would mean a ~70% drop, so $25M, and if it drops that much then it's probably only making another $10M in box office, which gets us to $115M. Considering the post release hype on this film has focused on mixed reviews and poor box office, I think that's a realistic floor for the movie.
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