Quote:
Originally Posted by Philly06Cup
Dump in v controlled entry data for those interested:
2019
2020
Gaudreau unsurprisingly goes for controlled entry 80% of the time, both this year and last year. Everyone else is dumping the puck in way more often compared to last year. Monahan goes from 55% controlled to 30%; Lindholm goes from 55% to 40%. Success rate and/or opportunity is also dramatically down. Gaudreau goes from one of the best in the league at 26 entries/60min to 21. But, he's still top 2 on our team. The rest of the team is way down.
My conclusions:
It's definitely a team issue. Hockey analytics will tell you that controlled entries are worth expected shots/goals more than dump-ins. We are reverting to a caveman style. Gaudreau is the exception, yet people are quick to hate on him! I believe this to be due to optics. An average player will dump the puck 5 times and the team retrieves the puck say 50% of the time. Gaudreau will control the puck into the zone 5 times, but may give up 2 turnovers. Gaudreau creates more offensive entries, but most viewers only remember his 2 turnovers and swear at their TV and curse Gaudreau for being a turnover-prone puck hog.
Gaudreau is slumping, but so is the rest of the team. Still, Gaudreau is our more skilled player and should be valued as such.
Data taken from Corey Sznajder's tableau page. |
Thanks for the analysis. Very interesting. I agree that turning the puck over 2 times out of 5 at the blue line vs a 2.5 time recovery from a dump in simple terms makes sense.
The difference for me is the quality of the chance that goes the other way when you turn the puck over at the blue line versus when you get the puck deep and set-up a fore check. My perception is that it is far more costly to turn the puck over at the blue line.
Not suggesting that you should always dump the puck in. Only suggesting that if the choice is a high risk play at the blue line vs dumping the puck in then maybe dumping the puck in is the right play.
Curious if you know of a way to validate that through stats.