Quote:
Originally Posted by Rando
Player A
Year One - 8 Goals 24 Points
Y2 - 16G 36 Points
Y3 - 28G 59P
Total - 52G 119P
Player B
Y1 - 24G 63P
Y2 - 14G 38P
Y3 - 21G 52P
Total - 59G 153P
Player C
Y1 - 22G 34P
Y2 - 31G 62P
Y3 - 27G 62P
Total - 80G 159P
Player C had the highest goal total of the three players and also the most points. Also the only one to break 30 goals in nine combined seasons. Which one should've gotten the bigger contract?
Important to note player A is a UFA in 2022, players B and C one year later in 2023. Should that not be a major factor when comparing contracts?
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Great question. You are allowed to use their names, though. Curiously you didn't list games played either, for whatever reason, which is obviously important when using raw numbers instead of rate numbers. Finally, mystery Player A, if it is who I suspect it is, was a mid-season signing so you may want to adjust those boxcars numbers for Y3.
Here is a snapshot of what was known at the time of signing for each player:
Barkov
Just his third season in the league and already a dominant two-way force at even-strength and isn't getting the spoon-fed even-strength situations most young players enjoy. Good scoring generation rates for his age however it is notable that comes with very low powerplay usage for a forward which bodes well once he gets more. Clearly more of a playmaker than a goal scorer. Despite tough assignments and age, somehow draws more penalties than he takes. Coupled with organic development, he is on track to become a premier two-way number one centre with Selke potential.
MacKinnon
Generates an astounding number of shots for himself, however has a woefully low shooting percentage. From watching him since he was 16, we know that is going to rebound making him a big breakout candidate at some point (note that didn't happen for another season still). Despite that, his scoring generation rate is very good and he isn't powerplay-reliant, either. He also generates about 20 powerplays per year more than he causes which is remarkable and a big asset. Finally, while getting put in mostly offensive situations at even-strength as most young players do, he has performed very well. Coupled with organic development, he has a very bright future and will explode in the next 1-3 years once his shooting percentage levels.
Monahan
Obviously the first thing that stands out is his goalscoring ability. Many basic "stats guys" (and girls) around this time were proclaiming that his shooting percentage was bound to plummet, however from watching him since he was 16 we recognize his incredibly unique release combined with his ability to find channels will likely mean a shooting percentage that is in the top tier of the league for his career. Unfortunately despite getting put in mostly offensive situations at even-strength as most young player do, he hasn't been able to excel - but didn't flouder, either. His 30% powerplay utilization is right where you would expect it to be so he is unlikely to see his scoring generation increase there. Monahan represents the abnormal case where what you see is likely what you will get going forward, with some organic development factored in.
Based on the eye test and the numbers test, Barkov and MacKinnon are the clear one-two with Monahan behind in third. Personally, at the time I would have had Barkov as the highest-paid, followed closely by MacKinnon, and finally Monahan 500-750k behind. But I could certainly see the argument for MacKinnon first, or MacKinnon and Barkov equal.
As you noted, Barkov's contract has an additional year which you can adjust AAV as you see fit. Or just compare MacKinnon and Monahan.