Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken
The key with the salvage trade is the timing, AKA, not letting a player's value bottom out.
Barker scored ~40 points in ~60 games the season before he was traded. The Hawks didn't wait two or three seasons after that to trade him, they dealt him the very next season after he started to show he wasn't that player.
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Exactly. In many of the cases cited in powerjunkie's excellent post, the team salvaged a disappointing pick by getting something while the player still had perceived value.
That's why the common fan refrain of 'better to hang onto him than trade him for [a realistic but disappointing return]' is so wrongheaded. It's classic sunk cost fallacy. There absolutely is something to lose by waiting too long to sell - the difference between a front-line player > a 1st round pick > decent prospect > a 2nd round pick > ?.