Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew
Lots of talk today about O'Brein's decisions on 4th down. Personally I didn't have an issue with either at the time. On 4th and 1, they were up 21-0 and everything going their way. A gimme FG and you keep the pressure on. A 4th down stop gives the Chiefs renewed life. So at the time, I liked the FG.
The fake punt. The Chiefs had just scored a TD as if your defense wasn't even on the field. As the coach, you had to be very uneasy about how easily they scored. Then you go 3 and out, and you start to feel you're losing control of the game. But as usual, the Texans can't execute.
|
The first one is indefensible. The difference between 21 and 24 is three two point conversions, so it's still a three score game even if its unlikely Reid starts going for two that early (even if he should). 28-0 is four scores and another TD is more psychologically damaging. And you're playing the greatest offense around and it's not like Houston was delivering a defense masterpiece, the Chiefs were beating themselves with drops. You had to figure they would pick it up, so you need to score as many points as you can. And it's fourth and one and you have a mobile QB. Also can't ignore he burned a timeout to kick the FG instead of going for it, a time out that would have been greatly beneficial as they chased a FG late in the half. Plus if the concern is "well if they get a stop, they have renewed life..."
...why try a significantly lower percentage risk in the fake punt that gives even more life than a stop on fourth and one? A stop on fourth and one in the red zone and they have to go 80+ yards. Botch the fake punt and it's a 30 yard field. It's funny because in the abstract I mostly like the fake punt. Sorensen deserves the game ball for making a fantastic play to stop it (and forcing the fumble on the kickoff). It's just the logical idiocy of passing on an 90/10 risk with low downside and then following it up by taking a risk that is, being as generous as possible, 50/50 with extremely high downside. I think he just panicked in both situations and went with his gut rather than the logic.
In the end though I agree those calls were not that important. The Texans got their asses kicked the last 40 minutes of that game, the pass rush in particular made it easy as pie for Mahomes. But those decisions were still poor and contributed to what turned out to be a very easy win for the Chiefs. With Watson's rookie deal almost done it makes no sense to stick with the very mediocre O'Brien, but as you note the Texans issues are organizational dysfunction and perhaps firing O'Brien won't change much.