(4)
So, here are the things I am having problems with:
a.
From what I can determine from many accounts is that the plane took a turn to starboard after being hit. That indicates something catastrophic to the starboard side, affecting the aerodynamics. But aren’t the “sources” saying the missile came from port?
I read an account yesterday that provided a best guess for the location of the TOR, but I can’t find it now. If the missile came from port, and we assume the fireball is from the engine, then it would have been the port engine hit and the plane would have turned to port.
b.
The aircraft stopped transmitting ADS-B (the Flightradar data) too early. Whether it was a MANPADS or TOR, that doesn't explain the gap between the last ADS-B transmission and the crash (there is a gap of four minutes). This flight’s last transmission was at 0244 UTC. The plane crashed at 0248 UTC. Does that prove anything? Other flights taking off from Tehran kept transmitting, and ground stations 'heard' ADS-B in that area, so it's not coverage.
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/u...f-from-tehran/
Is ADS-B reliable? I assume it isn’t totally accurate.
c.
Apparently the vertical stabilizer (rudder) was torn off the tail just prior to impact and found at the leading edge of the debris field. Is this true? That’s a strong part of the aircraft and even when the plane comes apart, you usually find the vertical stabilizer still attached to the horizontal stabilizer. For aerodynamic forces to rip that thing off, the aircraft would have to be spinning or encountered some other catastrophic forces just prior to impact. The final tens of seconds seem to have been in a relatively straight line, as per this dash cam video:
https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh
This looks like a plane that is under power but unable to maintain altitude. This, plus the gap of four minutes between loss of ADS-B and crash, tells me this plane was maneuvering back to airport under power. But I don't know for sure and I don't know what to make of it, but I do not believe a TOR shot this plane down.