At first blush, this denial looks to me like a horrible miscalculation by Iran that risks their losing credibility both internationally and domestically. They may have determined that they can control the messaging - at least within their own borders - well enough to convince Iranians that this was not their own government's doing, but rather an aviation disaster or, more likely, a plot by the US.
The problem with that is that they're not dealing with an uneducated populace full of country bumpkins who also have no personal interest in the truth of why the plane went down, and will happily swallow the government's narrative. They have a highly educated population with a direct interest in what happened to the (I think) 142 Iranian nationals who were on that plane, and with connections to the outside world including the Iranian diaspora in Canada and elsewhere.
In short, they've risked their credibility with their own population and the rest of the world by adopting what appears to be a "plausible deniability" propaganda exercise.
If Iran did shoot that plane down (very likely) and if they know that (also very likely) and have decided to try to cover it up (increasingly likely based on the most recent reports), then they're not only squandering an opportunity for rapprochement with the international community, but they're handing their enemies a massive public relations and political victory. Not only that, but they'd be doing so in circumstances where they were likely to be forgiven - in a sense - had they simply been forthcoming, given the situation prevailing at the time the incident occurred.
Mind you, the Iranian regime has its own brand of math when it comes to these things, and lots of this is still speculation. But Iran is best placed to resolve that speculation and, if they don't, the rest of the world will simply have to draw some negative inferences. Canada needs to keep pushing for answers regardless, and hopefully the Iranian government will face some internal pressures to provide real answers to those connected to the friends and family members lost in this incident.
It's still early days, but this isn't a promising turn from Iran.
I should also add that I really enjoy posts like the ones Baron has made above, and that Captain has made in other threads, with respect to military technology and logistics. Keep it up gents - it's very informative to those of us with no grounding in this stuff whatsoever.
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