[TheScorpion]

It's no secret that the Flames are currently playing excellent hockey. They're receiving contributions from all four lines and new coach Geoff Ward seems to be able to put anyone in the lineup anywhere without missing a beat. Even renowned fighter Zac Rinaldo is showing hitherto undreamt-of offensive flair under the current system.

That said, the Flames are soon to face a puzzling conundrum, albeit a good one to have. Simply put, this team has too many forwards and only 12 regular spots for them. Right now, with Sam Bennett and Austin Czarnik at varying levels of recuperation from injuries, the Flames have been able to give ample playing time to overachieving depth characters. But with Bennett and Czarnik seemingly soon to return, the Flames need to trim the roster down.

Of course, some guys have more security than others. The following players can be readily assumed as locks to remain with the big club, largely due to salary considerations and their established roles on the team:

- Mikael Backlund
- Sam Bennett
- Johnny Gaudreau
- Elias Lindholm
- Milan Lucic
- Andrew Mangiapane
- Sean Monahan
- Derek Ryan
- Matthew Tkachuk

Those are nine forwards. Three lines. But when it comes to the remaining three slots (plus an extra or two), things get a bit more complex, with the following players all vying for placement:

- Austin Czarnik
- Dillon Dube
- Michael Frolik
- Mark Jankowski
- Matthew Phillips
- Tobias Rieder
- Zac Rinaldo

At least two of these players have to be sent down. Cap considerations will likely force the reassignment of three. But which ones?

Let's break it down.

Matthew Phillips

The diminutive forward has lit up the American Hockey League this season, pacing Stockton and ranking seventh among AHL skaters with 25 points in 22 games. Recalled on Tuesday, Phillips didn't draw into Calgary's contest against Arizona later that night. It remains to be seen whether he'll play against Toronto on Thursday, or if he'll even be around the team by then.

Phillips is the easiest player for the Flames to send down. He hasn't played any games, and he doesn't require waivers to be sent back to Stockton. The organization will hope to avoid losing any of its depth if possible, and placing players on waivers opens up that risk.

He could get into a game or two if Matthew Tkachuk remains sidelined for an extended duration of time, but Phillips is likely Stockton-bound before long.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 5%

Zac Rinaldo

This one is so, so tricky. Rinaldo has been something of a revelation in Calgary since his recall. He's fast, has a good shot, and has managed to find some chemistry with Michael Frolik on the fourth line. He also has a bit of crazy in him that can spark a team and make a real difference in a tight-checking hockey game.

But... he's 29. He's been around for a decade. While he has been a buzzsaw for the Flames, is that likely to last? He has 40 career points in over 350 NHL games. And, from an asset valuation standpoint, are NHL GMs going to be lining up to claim him off waivers?

Rinaldo has made a real difference on the Flames, and sending him down would be more of a casualty of the business side of the game more than anything. But he might also be the type of player who is better in small doses, only used sporadically -- but at the right times. Even if he's sent down, he'll be back.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 20%

Austin Czarnik

With 184 career AHL games played, Austin Czarnik is no stranger to the American Hockey League. In fact, he's there right now on a temporary conditioning stint, and he just scored the game-winning goal in overtime for the Stockton Heat in their 3-2 win over the Ontario Reign.

Czarnik has scored eight goals in 62 games with the Flames. He's fast but small, skilled but inconsistent, cheap but perhaps not cheap enough. He was playing some of his best hockey as a Flame before suffering an injury in October, but even at his best, does he provide as much value for his $1.25 million salary as a similar player in the minors (or Tobias Rieder) might provide at the league minimum?

Of course, Czarnik is not waivers exempt, and there's a decent chance that he wouldn't pass through if the team wanted to assign him to Stockton. And he's a good piece to have around: he can score on the powerplay, has good hands and vision, and (most of all) has speed to burn. But the Flames would stand to save $1.075 million of Czarnik's $1.25 million cap hit if he cleared waivers, and that could help to open up critical breathing room that might enable GM Brad Treliving to make a move at the trade deadline.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 45%

Mark Jankowski

Jankowski is another player whose salary likely exceeds his value. But while Czarnik has played some of his best hockey as a Flame this season, Jankowski has played his worst: he has yet to record a single goal or primary assist through 29 games.

Jankowski has a $1.675 million cap hit, which was more than reasonable when he scored 14 goals and 32 points in 2018-19. Now, it feels almost like an anchor. That said, Jankowski has always been a project for the Flames organization, and while his counting stats rank among the league's worst this season, his overwhelmingly defensive deployment hasn't done him many favours in that regard. His mainstay status on the Flames' penalty-killing units also helps his cause.

Most of Austin Czarnik's salary can be buried in the AHL, while demoting Jankowski gives the Flames a $600,000 dead weight. While Czarnik is certainly the more versatile of the two players, with his ability to play both wing and centre, Jankowski has proven more at the NHL level and is a fixture on special teams. He also has a slightly higher chance of maintaining a long-term role in the organization, something that the Flames might try to avoid jeopardizing outright through a waiver claim.

Trade speculation? Well, that's a discussion for another day...

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 60%

Tobias Rieder

Rieder has generally been a good presence for the Flames. He's fast and versatile, two qualities that help players endear themselves easily to NHL coaches. He's also dirt cheap, at $700,000.

Why send him down, then? Well, his entire salary can be buried, and he's already passed through waivers once before this season. That was before his recent three-game point streak and increased role on the penalty-kill. It's entirely possible that another team would pounce on Rieder if he were to be made available again.

It's more likely than not that Rieder is here to stay. That's a good thing, provided he maintains his current level of performance.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 85%

Michael Frolik

Frolik hasn't been bad this season, but he hasn't been particularly good, either. Up until his back-to-back goal-scoring performances against Colorado and Arizona, Frolik had recorded a single goal over his first 29 games and had twice been made a healthy scratch. Plus, he's pretty expensive, boasting a $4.3 million salary-cap hit. Generally speaking, it's not a good look to waive or demote guys making that much money.

And why do it? Despite his limited production, Frolik is still a quality veteran player with the ability to play either wing and on almost any line. If the circumstances required it, Geoff Ward could stick him with Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund and the trio would likely register decent, if not good, results. Frolik also kills penalties with regularity and success.

Unless a trade partner comes along who is willing to absorb all of his salary without sending a similarly costly player in return, it's hard to envision Frolik not playing out the final year of his contract with the Flames.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 90%

Dillon Dube

Who am I kidding? Dube is here to stay. Sure, he's exempt from waivers. That doesn't change that he's been fantastic since his recall. Dube looks like he could be a quality top-six forward in the making, and with the way he's rolling along in Calgary, the Flames would need to have a very good reason to sacrifice his momentum in favour of a reassignment to Stockton.

Likelihood of staying in Calgary: 99%

16 forwards enter. 13 stay. My picks to leave are Phillips, Rinaldo, and Czarnik. It's not an easy choice for me to make, though -- I can't imagine how difficult it'll be for the guy actually paid to make that call.

Interested to hear what you all think.