^ That's actually not a bad way to look at it. 5th and 6th in the hex are black holes (that Canada would have a high probability of falling into).
The non-hex route will still be a long slog with plenty of opportunities to trip up, and the format is still a sham. But I can see Canada getting some wins and at least knocking on the back door to qualify. The hex would have been a lot of parking the bus and trying to avoid losing instead of trying to win.
Silver Lining Sherm has given me optimism.
