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Originally Posted by Red Mile Style
Every thing you're saying here isn't fact. I have just as much proof (if not more) that we are at the oil peak right now as you have for saying it will run out in 150 years. But, at least you realize that the oil will run out, which most people just don't realize (or care).
I don't see how a North American version on OPEC CAN NOT NOT do anything. I will take the ignorant Western philosophy of if we want something, we take it. If anything I would like you to explain this point the most. I am not sure why Canadians/North Americans/Westerners allow OPEC to dictate to us what our oil is worth, but if you're happy with the amount of power foreign governments have over our markets, yay.
I'm not really sure what you mean about the royalty structure being "renowed" either... it's the lowest on the planet. The obvious place for the highest is Sweden or Norway, and even the US has higher royalties than Alberta. The Heritage Fund... if you feel confident that that will sustain Alberta, great.
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OK. I've bumped into you before, and I know how this is going to go. So I'm going to be careful here.
This isn't teasing, it just my honest opinion: There is a healthy gap between what exists, and what you believe in some cases, and a big gap between your belief of your understanding of topics, and complete understanding of topics. Sorry, I just believe this to be true.
First the peak oil theory you speak of is a scenario, and that is all. Yes large fields in the middle east are showing signs of depletion, but technology is place new reserves on books that nobody had thought was economical in the past. IE Alberta is second on earth of oil reserves only to Saudi Arabia. And likely in 5-10 years we'll pass them as well. Now we are moving from light sweet, to heavy sour, which means it is lower value crude, but in some cases we are just touching the tip of the iceberg. Further, over the next few years you will hear more about Coal Bed Methane and 10-15 years later, gas hydrates. If we can find a way to economically recover hydrates we will be able to increase the worlds gas reserves by 2 to 10 times what they are today. Peak oil is a trendy topic in the media, usually when you hear someone say peak oil you can tell that they are an outsider who has a passing interest in oil and gas.
As for OPEC, you need to understand that any large group that gets together can control prices, US/Can could control prices (by manipulating supply) as can OPEC, but BTW, OPEC would be 5X bigger. All any supplier can do to manage prices is restrict supply, but why would North America do that? They go flat out all the time. What would you propose this little coalition could do to help prices? Whatever they can do, they are doing already. And with that light, AB has renowed royalties because they are cheap up front to foster development but once projects pay out they increase sizably. So the goals of your coalition are met by Alberta's Royalty structure. Now is AB planning long term very well, no, they suck, but that's a different topic. They could be much better under the existing royalty structure.
You need to think about what a coalition's goals are, and what they could do to meet them. I presume you want us to manage price, but there is no way in he// that can be done other than manage supply, and I suppose improve logistics, but that's not a significant lever and our infrastructure is not bad as it is.