Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Correct.
I was just pointing out that the data would be derived from action on the ice that has seen Neal score 8 powerplay goals to date, and 12 overall. You'd think he'd have a tonne of positive impact measures with those results, but he doesn't.
It's shooting percentage, and with that their model summarizes him as a sub replacement level player.
So yeah it's predictive, and that suggests a tough road.
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That makes sense. So the way I think of it, if you flip a coin 82 times, you should get 41 heads and and 41 tails.
But if you get 12 heads in the first 18 trys, you no longer expect a 50/50 result for the full population. Only for your remaining flips. So you'd expect 44 heads and 38 tails now.