View Single Post
Old 10-18-2019, 04:36 PM   #1807
rubecube
Franchise Player
 
rubecube's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
Two issues here:

1) it is usually extremely difficult to attribute market movement to general economic news. If you have a specific event, during market hours, and the markets react immediately and specifically to the news, ok. Otherwise, markets are digesting incredible amounts of information, and attributing to ongoing information is almost impossible.

2) however, if you want to play the attribution game, the only sensible and rational time to assess the reaction is at the time the event happens. If the market were to react to Trudeau being PM, it would be after the election, not when he took office.
Well point #1 would seem to indicate that you can't really say the TSX lost x because Trudeau was elected. To point #2, you'd probably want to try to attribute it to policy like a budget or throne speech, right?
rubecube is offline   Reply With Quote