Quote:
Originally Posted by TheScorpion
I have a feeling that xGF will get there, one day. But yeah, we're still a ways off from a comprehensive WAR-like stat. Maybe puck and player tracking will help with that.
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I am not so confident in that
xGF% considers events that happen while all 5 skaters are on the ice, not discriminating between skaters, while conventional points have the benefit of isolating the people who touched the puck
xGF% uses things like shot counts etc. to predict which team is more likely to score, and you isolate an individual vs peers by his overall xGF% and that is going to be over a long period of time with various line mates, so guys are differentiated somewhat from the pack over time, and imply offensive results but don’t actually factor in the actual scoring
Meanwhile conventional stats only go to the guys who actually get points. Too bad, the third passer, or the screen don’t always get recognized, but it’s a lot more correlative than the stats which infer offensive likelihood from on ice events