Quote:
Originally Posted by mrdonkey
We never saw this version of Neal last year. And I’m not sure saddling him with marginal players like Bennett and Jankowski was the right way to get his confidence back.
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At 5v5 it's the exact same Neal though.
The only difference is a 50% shooting percentage on the top PP with Draisaitl and McDavid.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
The big thing about PP scoring IMO is that it's really the unit that is generating the goals, it's not like Neal is doing anything amazing here to generate the opportunities for himself.
So if you look at the Oilers top PP unit over the first 6 games last year vs this year.
(Using McDavid as the proxy for the first unit.)
Last Year:
PP Time: 23:12
Shots: 22
Goals For: 5
Goals Against: 0
Shooting Percentage: 22.3%
Expected Goals For/60: 9.01
This Year:
PP Time: 26:16
Shots: 29
Goals For: 8
Goals Against: 1
Shooting Percentage: 27.6%
Expected Goals For / 60: 8.89
Lucic was on the top PP for most of those first 6 games last year.
So really from a PP effectiveness perspective they are generating the same rate of shots, and expected goals as they were last year. They just have a better shooting percentage this year, and it's Neal scoring the goals instead of McDavid/RNH/Drai.
Once again it's great for the optics of the trade for Edmonton and for Neal personally - but really once the shooting percentages normalizes from him shooting 50% on the PP they likely aren't much better as a PP unit than they were last year.
And fact of the matter is both of the guys are still bad at 5v5.
Neal: CF - 48.8%, xGF%- 44.5%
Lucic: CF - 46.4%. xGF% - 46.0%
And James Neal is very much the same player at 5v5 as he was in Calgary for the first 6 games here.
First 6 games in Calgary at even strength: Goals 1, Shots 8, ixG - 0.61, xGF%-44.8%
First 6 games in Edmonton at even strength: Goals 2, Shots 9, ixG-0.41, xGF% - 44.5%
But for sure... as long as he keeps shooting 50% on the PP while being force fed PP minutes with Draisaitl, and McDavid that trade is going to look great for them.
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