Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
I'll give you clean electricity and assume that in 10 years by some industrial miracle we can replace all fossil fuel electric generation with nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, tidal etc. done deal. Carbon neutral.
There are 86 million cars produced every year Tesla will sell nearly 400,000 cars this year. So replacing even half the petrol burners with electric means BEV manufacturing will need to increase 100x that would be another industrial miracle. And even if that happened there is still a carbon neutral best case payback of 5 years, that's being very optimistic. I wonder how many Gigafactories that works out to be. Granted there are other electric makers but their sales are small, so maybe just maybe we "only" need to increase BEV production 20x.
You said we do have solutions no we don't not even close, not for decades. Once again I'm the only one attempting to do the math why is that.
|
You're making lots of assumptions here that can be challenged. To be fair to you, many experts will have different opinions on how this plays out, so it's not simple and straightforward.
1) 100% clean electricity production isn't and shouldn't be the goal. The increasing costs as you go higher mean the last few percent will be astronomical. We can largely phase out fossil fuels though and still remain on co2 Target without spending trillions on the last bit
2) Most electric vehicles (not large battery packs) on a clean grid, the carbon payoff is much quicker than a gas powered vehicle. The co2 emissions from battery production are largely dependent on the energy source of the place they're being produced. So with all clean electricity generation, the payoff is probably less than a year.
3) You're not thinking globally when thinking about EV production. In 2019, 2.5% of all light duty vehicles were plug in vehicles. China alone sold over 1 million this year already. While about 30-35% of those were plug in hybrids, due to battery costs dropping the share of plug in hybrids to fill electric is plummeting.
4) You can't look at disruptive technology linearly. In 2013, Tesla sold 21,000 cars. By 2016 they exceeded 80,000. This year they will sell 400,000 and are doubling their production capacity
5) Tesla built a gigafactory in China in 6 months and will be making up to 250,000 cars there. Volkswagen plans on selling 22 million electric vehicles by 2028. These plans are already underway
6) Electric Vehicles are more powerful, faster, more reliable, cheaper to run, and last longer. The only thing they are not yet is cheaper to buy (they are often cheaper over a life cycle but I digress). Once price parity is reached (estimates by 2022) why would anyone buy a gas powered car? If the market demands electric Vehicles, that's what will be produced. They won't shutter every vehicle manufacturing plant and open whole new ones.
Having said all of that, 100% electric by 2030 is balderdash