Quote:
Originally Posted by zamler
I'll give you clean electricity and assume that in 10 years by some industrial miracle we can replace all fossil fuel electric generation with nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, tidal etc. done deal. Carbon neutral.
There are 86 million cars produced every year Tesla will sell nearly 400,000 cars this year. So replacing even half the petrol burners with electric means BEV manufacturing will need to increase 100x that would be another industrial miracle. And even if that happened there is still a carbon neutral best case payback of 5 years, that's being very optimistic. I wonder how many Gigafactories that works out to be. Granted there are other electric makers but their sales are small, so maybe just maybe we "only" need to increase BEV production 20x.
You said we do have solutions no we don't not even close, not for decades. Once again I'm the only one attempting to do the math why is that.
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We need to cut emissions in half by 2030 to stay on target. 30% of emissions are power plants. So we have the technology to do that. We certainly don’t have the will. So if we cut 83% of those emissions that represents half of the work required. So it is only lack of political mandate that is stopping this.
The answer to cars isn’t only BEVs. If you immediately mandate the cars sold have a fuel efficiency of X the cost of SUVs and Trucks increases dramatically and smaller cars would dominate. You’d also need to tax older cars as well. But the first step is the average vehicle sold needs to be 20% more efficient than the average today. This requires only inventory shifting and not new tech. Less people will be able to afford large vehicles. Next we place $200-$500 per tone Carbon tax on gasoline globally with this money spent on direct air carbon capture based on the end price of DAC. The current pilots are suggesting 100-200 per tonne. A $200-$500 tax works out to about 40 - 100 cents per litre. Doubling the cost of gas also decreases km driven.
The tech exists. The will to double the cost of Gas and increase food prices and taxes to subsidize those who can’t afford higher food prices does not.