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Enoch Root · 10-10-2019, 01:50 PM

There is always so much talk about what is a legit top 6 player?; do we need another top 6?; Backlund isn’t a top 6; etc.etc., that I thought I would run some numbers and start a discussion.

Now, I am not going to claim that points are the be all, and end all for defining who are the best top 6 players – hell, we need look no further than our own Mikael Backlund to see a perfect example that there is more to the equation than just points. However, points DO matter, and it is a starting point for discussion.

I should also note that I did not factor in injuries (for example Taylor Hall in NYJ) and time off - first, because it would have been impossible, and second, because one player’s injury is another player’s opportunity. So it is what it is.

The first thing I did was rank the top point producers (#1s), the 2nd highest point producers (#2s), through to #6 by points. Then did some quick analysis on those rankings. I think it is important to comment that, by the time we get to the #6 guy on each team, they may well not even be in the top 6. Also, some 2nd line guys are there for defense, so points aren’t fair. But again, we have to draw lines somewhere. So here we go…

I started by looking at #4 and #5 on each team because so much talk revolves around Backlund, and because again, I think #6 can be misleading. I found the results a little bit surprising.

Flames’ rank for #4: 1st Tkachuk with 77 points (avg 47.8)
Flames’ rank for #5: 4th Backlund with 47. Kane led with 56 (avg 39.3)

Yes, Mikael Backlund was ranked 4th among #5 forwards around the league. Kane in SJ was tops with 56 points, and Gallagher was the only other guy that breached 50. I was pretty sure that Backlund’s 47 pts was going to be top half of the league, but being 4th surprised me. And not only was he 4th, his 47 points equalled the league average for the #4 forward. So he was an elite #5, and an average #4. Pretty impressive for a guy that didn’t get a sniff of the top PP unit (Kane had 11 PP points and Gallagher had 7).
Excluding PP points, Backlund actually ranked #1 for points among #5 forwards, and was well into the top half of the league for #4s.

So, in my opinion, the debate about whether Backlund is a legit top 6 is over. He is, and it isn’t close. He is a legit #4, and an elite #5. And that doesn’t even factor his elite defensive play into the equation.

Tkachuk led all #4 point getters, and the league average was 30 points less than him, so there isn’t even anything to say on this. Tkachuk is a top line guy, playing on the 2nd line. The average #2 forward had 69 pts and the average #1 had 80. So Tkachuk's totals put him in those conversations.

Expanding from there, we can look at lines. A lot of the talk around the Flames is that they are a one line team. Do the numbers back that up? What I did was rank each position, so we can look at the ranks for 1, 2 and 3, and see how they stack up.

The Flames (Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm) come in at: #6, #7, and #3. All 3 are elite, and only TBL (#1, #2, #1!!!) were better. The Oilers were #2, #1, #10 (2/3 elite). And BOS was #4, #9, #2 and the 3 guys had identical points to the 3 Flames, so we’ll call them a tie.

Okay, what about the 2nd line? This is where it got a bit surprising:
Flames: #1, #4, #8. Not just good, but elite. In fact, 2nd best in the league. SJS were #5, #1, #1. TBL was #14, #4, #2. And for ####s and giggles, EDM was #23, #31, #31 lol (and people wonder why Neal is getting every opportunity in the world!)

So when we look at top 6, the Flames top line was in the top 3 (arguably 2nd), and their 2nd line was also 2nd best. For the top 6 overall, the top 2 teams were, without question, TBL and CGY (which matches the standings). SJS had the best 2nd line but were decidedly average with the top line (#18, #15, #11 – and they have lost Pavelski).

How about the cup winners, and the teams that went deep in the playoffs?

STL: #17, #17, #17 / #17, #16, #11 – they couldn’t be any more average if they tried. And amazingly, the Flames were better at all 6 spots, usually by a pretty wide margin

BOS: #4, #9, #2 / #2, #11, #16 – elite 1st line, a little above average 2nd line

SJS: #18, #15, #11 / #5, #1, #1 – average top line, best 2nd line (also elite 3rd line)

CAR: #14, #11, #18 / #22, #18, #24 – made the final 4 with an average top line and a below average 2nd line.

Again, points are only one factor. But going by points, the Flames are one of the 2 best teams in the league for top 6 forwards – both the 1st line AND the 2nd line. And the only team among those that went deep in the playoffs that were even close to them was BOS. The other 3 were no where near at the Flames' level.

Obviously, getting more talent is always welcome. But there is a thing called the cap. And to me, these numbers say that top 6 talent isn’t the Flames’ problem. IMO, their two biggest problems last year were:

#1: goaltending (below average)
#2: toughness / grit, whatever you want to call it (almost non-existent)

Thoughts?

10-10-2019, 01:50 PM	#1
Enoch Root Franchise Player Join Date: May 2012 Exp:	Ranking and Discussing the Top 6... There is always so much talk about what is a legit top 6 player?; do we need another top 6?; Backlund isn’t a top 6; etc.etc., that I thought I would run some numbers and start a discussion. Now, I am not going to claim that points are the be all, and end all for defining who are the best top 6 players – hell, we need look no further than our own Mikael Backlund to see a perfect example that there is more to the equation than just points. However, points DO matter, and it is a starting point for discussion. I should also note that I did not factor in injuries (for example Taylor Hall in NYJ) and time off - first, because it would have been impossible, and second, because one player’s injury is another player’s opportunity. So it is what it is. The first thing I did was rank the top point producers (#1s), the 2nd highest point producers (#2s), through to #6 by points. Then did some quick analysis on those rankings. I think it is important to comment that, by the time we get to the #6 guy on each team, they may well not even be in the top 6. Also, some 2nd line guys are there for defense, so points aren’t fair. But again, we have to draw lines somewhere. So here we go… I started by looking at #4 and #5 on each team because so much talk revolves around Backlund, and because again, I think #6 can be misleading. I found the results a little bit surprising. Flames’ rank for #4: 1st Tkachuk with 77 points (avg 47.8) Flames’ rank for #5: 4th Backlund with 47. Kane led with 56 (avg 39.3) Yes, Mikael Backlund was ranked 4th among #5 forwards around the league. Kane in SJ was tops with 56 points, and Gallagher was the only other guy that breached 50. I was pretty sure that Backlund’s 47 pts was going to be top half of the league, but being 4th surprised me. And not only was he 4th, his 47 points equalled the league average for the #4 forward. So he was an elite #5, and an average #4. Pretty impressive for a guy that didn’t get a sniff of the top PP unit (Kane had 11 PP points and Gallagher had 7). Excluding PP points, Backlund actually ranked #1 for points among #5 forwards, and was well into the top half of the league for #4s. So, in my opinion, the debate about whether Backlund is a legit top 6 is over. He is, and it isn’t close. He is a legit #4, and an elite #5. And that doesn’t even factor his elite defensive play into the equation. Tkachuk led all #4 point getters, and the league average was 30 points less than him, so there isn’t even anything to say on this. Tkachuk is a top line guy, playing on the 2nd line. The average #2 forward had 69 pts and the average #1 had 80. So Tkachuk's totals put him in those conversations. Expanding from there, we can look at lines. A lot of the talk around the Flames is that they are a one line team. Do the numbers back that up? What I did was rank each position, so we can look at the ranks for 1, 2 and 3, and see how they stack up. The Flames (Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm) come in at: #6, #7, and #3. All 3 are elite, and only TBL (#1, #2, #1!!!) were better. The Oilers were #2, #1, #10 (2/3 elite). And BOS was #4, #9, #2 and the 3 guys had identical points to the 3 Flames, so we’ll call them a tie. Okay, what about the 2nd line? This is where it got a bit surprising: Flames: #1, #4, #8. Not just good, but elite. In fact, 2nd best in the league. SJS were #5, #1, #1. TBL was #14, #4, #2. And for ####s and giggles, EDM was #23, #31, #31 lol (and people wonder why Neal is getting every opportunity in the world!) So when we look at top 6, the Flames top line was in the top 3 (arguably 2nd), and their 2nd line was also 2nd best. For the top 6 overall, the top 2 teams were, without question, TBL and CGY (which matches the standings). SJS had the best 2nd line but were decidedly average with the top line (#18, #15, #11 – and they have lost Pavelski). How about the cup winners, and the teams that went deep in the playoffs? STL: #17, #17, #17 / #17, #16, #11 – they couldn’t be any more average if they tried. And amazingly, the Flames were better at all 6 spots, usually by a pretty wide margin BOS: #4, #9, #2 / #2, #11, #16 – elite 1st line, a little above average 2nd line SJS: #18, #15, #11 / #5, #1, #1 – average top line, best 2nd line (also elite 3rd line) CAR: #14, #11, #18 / #22, #18, #24 – made the final 4 with an average top line and a below average 2nd line. Again, points are only one factor. But going by points, the Flames are one of the 2 best teams in the league for top 6 forwards – both the 1st line AND the 2nd line. And the only team among those that went deep in the playoffs that were even close to them was BOS. The other 3 were no where near at the Flames' level. Obviously, getting more talent is always welcome. But there is a thing called the cap. And to me, these numbers say that top 6 talent isn’t the Flames’ problem. IMO, their two biggest problems last year were: #1: goaltending (below average) #2: toughness / grit, whatever you want to call it (almost non-existent) Thoughts?