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Originally Posted by Fuzz
File that in the "settled science" pile, I guess.
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Models have always been given far too much credit in their ability to predict, when in reality they are incredibly sensitive to the value of initial variables that in practice are impossible to obtain. Here's an article where they made 40 runs of one climate model, showing significant difference in temperature trends.
To get these differences, all they did was:
Quote:
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With each simulation, the scientists modified the model's starting conditions ever so slightly by adjusting the global atmospheric temperature by less than one-trillionth of one degree, touching off a unique and chaotic chain of climate events.
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https://news.ucar.edu/123108/40-eart...te-variability