[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Anyone care to explain why going for 2 to be down 9 points with 12 minutes left makes any sense?

Peter King breaks it down this way in his in his FMIA column

Game: Baltimore at Kansas City, Sunday.

Situation: Kansas City up 30-19, 12:27 left in the game. The Ravens have just scored to pull within 11 points, and Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has a decision to make on the conversion—though most coaches would just kick the PAT.

The decision: Harbaugh chooses to go for the two-point conversion to try to cut the lead to nine points, rather than kick the PAT to go down by 10 with likely two possessions left in the game. On TV, Ian Eagle thinks the way most people think: “The math just doesn’t work.”

The thought process: Harbaugh said after the game it was a “clear analytic decision to go for two. We had a mindset that we would come in and score as many points as we could … We are not going into it blind. We got the numbers.”

The analytics: According to Eric Eager of PFF: “Had the Ravens converted the two-point conversion, they know that scoring a field goal and a touchdown with a conventional PAT wins the game outright, instead of leaving similar decisions to the end of the game. Mathematically, if Baltimore missed the two-point conversion attempt, the Chiefs were 94.3 percent likely to win, Baltimore 5.7 percent. If Baltimore made the two-point conversion, Kansas City was 89.1 percent likely to win, Baltimore 10.9 percent. By kicking the PAT, Kansas City was 92.8 percent likely to win, and Baltimore 7.2 percent. The benefit of making the two-point conversion over kicking the PAT was 3.7 percent win-probability points, while the loss via missing the two-point conversion over kicking the PAT was just 1.5 percent. Assuming the Ravens are a modest 50% on two-point conversions, this is easily the preferable decision.”

The result: Lamar Jackson threw incomplete to Nick Boyle on the two-point try, and the Ravens lost the game 33-28. On the day, Baltimore was zero of three on two-point tries. “We are going to keep playing that way, for the record,” Harbaugh said. “When you write your articles … we will disagree with your criticism. This is the way we are going to play all year.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ng/?cid=fmiatw