Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
81/175 is fine legs for an apparently disturbing Rated R film released in October. And you've got it backwards, a movie like this typically has at most a 3 times ratio from opening weekend.
Venom is irrelevant. It was rated PG-13, which means it had a huge advantage in terms of audience. Despite it's critic rankings it also had huge word-of-mouth, people loved it.
A movie like this (Oscar buzz aside, because there's really no legs behind the buzz yet and what little there is seems to be solely focused on Phoenix, which doesn't move the needle the way serious best picture potentials do) often tracks at an opening weekend being 35-45% of it's total.
On the bright end, if it does a 35% ratio (and that's if everything goes extremely well, keep in mind Deadpool 2 did 39.4, "It" did 37.7, and Deadpool did 36.5) then you're looking at anywhere between $200M and $270M total. You're going to have a tough time drawing as well as an Action/Comedy or a Horror movie, and those 3 movies are the closest comparables of the FIVE total R-rated movies that have topped $300M. They all also opened at over $120M.
It basically has to have an $100M+ opening weekend and the best legs of any R-rated movie in recent history to hit $300M. That is unlikely, but we'll see.
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This is incorrect. There have been plenty of recent R rated films with excellent legs.
Gone Girl: $37 million opening - $167 total domestic
Bridesmaids: $26 million opening - $169 total
Get Out: $33 million opening - $175 total
The Revenant: $39 million opening - $183 total
22 Jump Street: $57 million opening - $191 total
Ted: $54 million opening - $218 total
Logan: $88 million opening - $226 total
Hangover Part II - $85 million opening - $254 million total
The Hangover - $44 million opening - $277 million total
American Sniper - $89 million opening - $350 million total
Deadpool - $132 million opening - $363 million total
A Star is Born - $42 million opening- $215 total
Basically, R rated films that are actually good, tend to have very good legs, and are propelled forward by word of mouth.
I still think it's unlikely that Joker makes $300 million, but to say it's outside of the realm of possibility is incorrect. If it has a solid opening, and then gets good word of mouth, it has a very real possibility to get to $300 million.