The number that keeps coming back up for me is the polls of Trump supporters that ask "who could the Democrats nominate that would make you switch your vote from Trump to that candidate". The two candidates who consistently get over 10% in that metric are Bernie and Yang. I suspect that's why the "If nominee, then vs Trump" numbers are what they are... that's the whole ball game, right there. Flip 10% and get even passable base turnout (which you will regardless of nominee because they're voting against Trump), and it's probably over.
But then I remind myself of the history of incumbents never losing, and the democratic party's penchant for shooting itself in the foot, and that hope dissipates a bit. Maybe I'm just trying to insulate myself from disappointment.
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"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
Last edited by CorsiHockeyLeague; 08-29-2019 at 02:09 PM.
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