Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz
I've got the Browns to win the division at 20:1. Will finally pay out this year (hopefully).
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About that...
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 11-5
Vegas O/U Win Total: 8.5 (O -108, U -110)
2018 record – 10-6
2018 PEW: 10.8 (+0.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 48.9% (-1.1% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 29.7 (-48.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 77 (+77.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .429 winning percentage (-7.1% vs. NFL Average)
I’m pretty bullish on the Ravens this year. In fact, they’re currently 35-1 to win the Super Bowl, which might be the best value play out there at the moment. I can totally understand people being concerned about Lamar, and if the Ravens run into injury trouble (an area they were lucky in last year), the wheels could easily come off. However, this is a team whose underlying numbers support their record from a year ago and indicate improvement to come for this year. The over is an excellent play here, as is betting on them to win the AFC North. Basically take as much action as you can get on the Ravens right now.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 9-7
Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O -150, U +126)
2018 record – 9-6-1
2018 PEW: 9.7 (+0.7 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 51.4% (+1.4% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 40.4 (-37.8 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 139 (+139.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 11, .545 winning percentage (+5.5% vs. NFL Average)
While PEW shows the Steelers were a tad unlucky last year, they were fortunate in almost every other category (FRR being insignificant here). Again, these projections are based solely on the data we already have, which means I can’t comment on the Brown and Bell departures and what they mean to the team. I think 9-7 is a fair mark for this team but they could easily be 8-8 or 10-6 depending on if they see negative regression or not. This is another line I have no interest taking action on.
Cleveland Browns
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8
Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O +109, U -130)
2018 record – 7-8-1
2018 PEW: 7.1 (+0.1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 56.5% (+6.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 51.1 (-27.1 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 96 (+96.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 9, .556 winning percentage (+5.6% vs. NFL Average)
The offseason champs! The Browns are rolling into this season with all sorts of hype, but the underlying metrics suggest that maybe we should pump the breaks a bit. I understand that Hue Jackson can be blamed for many of the early season woes, but the numbers are the numbers, and this was firmly a 7-win team who was maybe a tad lucky to be a 7-win team. I can definitely envision scenarios where they sneak into a wild-card spot but they’re going to need a lot of things to break their way again to get there. I definitely don’t see much value in this line, but if you’re buying the hype then the over isn’t a bad play by any means.
Cincinnati Bengals
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 7-9
Vegas O/U Win Total: 6 (O +124, U -148)
2018 record – 6-10
2018 PEW: 5.9 (-0.1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 52% (+2% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 104.9 (+26.7 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -12 (-11.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .286 winning percentage (-21.4% vs. NFL Average)
There really isn’t much here to discuss. They were slightly unlucky with injuries and very unlucky in one-score games. I think the new coach is an upgrade on Lewis but the numbers can’t account for that. You could easily sway me on either 7-9 or 6-10. Either way, I’m not putting any money on this line.