Quote:
Originally Posted by Hes
I see it as at a certain point there is no incentive to sign the player this season. So there is a high likely-hood of a full season hold out or the player caving.
I actually think the more likely holdouts are Boeser and Werenski. Their teams are retooling right now and missing them for a season hurts them less.
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The problem with that theory is twofold.
1. For Boeser, the Canucks have just re-tooled, and they need to make the playoffs in one of the next two seasons to ensure that they give up a late first rounder for Miller instead of a potential top 10 (or top 3, if the Lightning get really lucky) pick. Boeser is also not eligible for an offer sheet, which might make him more inclined to cave, since he has no other alternative but to ultimately sign with the Canucks. Even if it's a Timo Meier style deal, I suspect they'll get him signed for training camp.
2. Werenski is basically just waiting for one of Provorov or McAvoy to sign, so that he can say, "Okay, give me $1M more than that guy". Things should move more quickly once that happens. There's a different sort of logjam among those three RFA D-men, because they're all waiting for each other. So I suspect that the only reason you'd see Werenski hold out long-term is if the other two guys do as well, which is highly unlikely - McAvoy is in the same situation as Boeser; he either plays for Boston or he plays for no one. He'll sign eventually and then the dominoes will fall.
The main thing to keep in mind for player hold outs is that even if the team does cave and gives them a bit more money on the deal, is it going to make up for the money you would've made in the games you missed? Say your team offers you 6x6 and you want 7x6, and no one budges. You hold out half the season and end up getting 6.5x6. You're now in exactly the situation you would have been had you just accepted the team's offer in the first place.