Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
I recommend checking out some of the multitudes of research that has been done on global energy supply and demand
I don’t think it is good enough to simply think that everyone can just have an opinion about whether or not, for example, a change in transportation demands will keep oil in the ground, and that it is ‘fine’. The data is out there, and many many people out a ton of effort in to complex forecasting considering many factors and scenarios. People are considering the global energy demand mix, the demand side, segmented into emerging and mature economies, the global supply mix, etc. etc.
You can start here
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/
Or here
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/bu...tlook-2019.pdf |
That's a pretty condescending post. I'm fairly certain I've read a lot about this as well.
If you want to escape the industry bubble you could start here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...heguardian.com
There's a lot of research already showing the seeds of massive change being planted.
As for BP's vision of energy future, pardon me if I don't take Blockbuster's long term view on movie rentals as gospel.
When it comes to EIA, they are historically overly conservative on change. Don't take my word for it, here's the IEEFA showing its already outdated:
http://ieefa.org/ieefa-u-s-the-feder...eady-outdated/
The EIA makes some strange assumptions about coal use increasing and renewables growing linearly, when they're already growing exponentially. My favorite EIA example of this is their 2009 outlook said by 2030, total solar capacity would be 12 GW. It surpassed 67GW this year.
Xcel just got bids for solar plus storage at $0.036/kWh. That's cheeeeeeeap. Things are already changing faster than the Outlook in January expected years from now.