Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
There is a reason people can change their opinion, by looking more closely and gathering more information.
On the surface, sure, they both did not meet expectations. Yes, Lucic had a downward trend in points for three seasons.
Guess what? Both players have the same number of points the last 3 years.
Also, Lucic put up over 50 points 3 years ago, and for the first half of 17-18, was on pace for the same.
There are some opinions in this thread that look at what happened at a surface level, then some that look at not only what happened but also how it happened.
Garbage for garbage is the simplest. You can make that case, but it is of no value in trying to figure out which guy stands a better chance of improving.
Lucic could get points with top linemates, in line with his career norms and expectations. Then with AHLers and goons, he can’t. (Big surprise).
Neal could not produce with any line on the Flames. No matter who he played with, he was no good. Top line, middle six, you name it. Made his line mates worse.
Lucic played with guys who are 10 ish point guys on a 4th line. Neal played with roughly 30 point guys, in limited utilization, with some looks with 50-80 point guys. Lucic was better than his line mates. Neal was worse
Wanting a bounce back next year is ignoring the elephant in the room. Neal was not wanted back.
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Oilers stats fans were actually burning Lucic even in his first season with the Oilers. He had a career year on the PP. He had 11 more PP points that year than any other year in his career.
His even strength production was actually subpar in 16/17. The career year on the PP masked his lack of ES production.
And Lucic fell off the cliff offensively while he was playing with McDavid in 17/18. He got way more rope than he would have gotten on a team like Calgary. He ended the season 4th in PP icetime among forwards and solidly in the top six among forwards for ES ice time.
Even in Lucic's last season around 10 of his 20 points involved McDavid, Draisaitl, or RNH. He also got a decent amount of PP time.
I would argue that Lucic couldn't produce well with offensive players in his time with the Oilers. I think if he had played a true bottom six role (Only playing with other bottom sixers, no PP time) his point totals would have been substantially worse last year.
It might be better for him in Calgary where they have more O-zone possession time. He's fairly smart in the O-zone, but it seems his hands are gone, and he doesn't add anything beyond replacement level in his own zone, or the neutral zone at this stage in his career IMO.