In the cap era, I couldn’t recall that many highly paid goaltenders winning cups. So it got me to thinking, has a team ever won the cup with a goalie with a >10% cap hit at time of signing?
2006 Carolina: Cam Ward. $684k AAV. 1.75% cap hit at signing
2007 Anaheim: Jean-Sebestian Giguere. $3.99 million AAV. Unknown cap hit percentage (signed before cap)
2008 Detroit: Chris Osgood. $800k AAV. Unknown cap hit percentage (signed before cap)
2009 Pittsburgh: Marc-Andre Fluery. $5 million AAV. 8.82% cap hit at signing
2010 Chicago: Anti Niemi. 826k AAV. 1.46% cap hit at signing
2011 Boston: Tim Thomas $5 million AAV. 8.82% cap hit at signing
2012 LA: Johnathan Quick. $1.8 million AAV. 3.4% cap hit at signing
2013 Chicago: Corey Crawford. $2.6 million AAV. 4.49% cap hit at signing
2014 LA: Johnathan Quick. $5.8 AAV. 9.67% cap hit at signing
2015 Chicago: Corey Crawford. $6 million AAV. 9.33% cap hit at signing
2016 Pittsburgh: Matt Murray. 902k AAV. 1% cap hit at signing
2017 Pittsburgh: Matt Murray. 902k AAV. 1% cap hit at signing
2018 Washington: Braden Holtby. $6.1 AAV. 8.54% cap hit at signing
2019 St. Louis: Jordan Binnington. $625k. .82% cap hit at signing
The answer is no. No team has ever won a cup in the cap era with a goalie who they signed for north of 10 percent of the cap. It does appear that the teams spending the most on goaltending are not winning Stanley Cups.
Vasilevskiy's 11.66% cap hit is going to be tough for the Lightning to overcome. Even when goalies perform to these big contracts, historically they are not great investments.
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