Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz
He was easily the worst player on the ice a lot of nights.
So much so that the Oilers wanted him off the team.
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I'm sure Lucic was perceived as the worst player on the ice on some nights, and some nights may even have been.
But the numbers don't suggest that he
was the Oilers' worst player.
With 400 minutes 5v5 as the cutoff:
Lucic was 13th of 16 on the Oilers in goals per 60 (0.26) and 5th of 16 on the Oilers in primary assists per 60 (0.58). His primary points/60 of 0.84 ranks 11th of 16, ahead of Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Spooner, Kyle Brodziak, Tobias Rieder, and Colby Cave. And while he was 13th in goals rate, his expected goals was a smidge higher at 0.53 xGF/60 (11th) so it's still very possible he was still somewhat the victim of bad luck (or a lack of confidence), as easy as it is to reject that notion.
Neal was 13th of 13th on the Flames in goals per 60 (0.31) and 12th of 13 in primary assist per 60 (0.39). His primary points/60 of 0.7 ranks 13th of 13 and in fact trails Lucic. As for his expected goals, those were a bit higher at 0.62 xGF/60 (9th of 13) so not unlike Lucic, it's possible last year's goal scoring was the result of some bad luck as well, but not indicative of a top-tier goal scorer either.
Hathaway was 5th of 13th on the Flames in goals per 60 (0.84) yet 13th of 13 in primary assist per 60 (0.19, yikes). His primary points/60 of 1.02 ranks 12th of 13 on the Flames. His expected goals rate of 0.65 was 8th of 13 so he was the beneficiary of some very fortunate luck.
Then you look at the on-ice shot metrics:
Hathaway was 12th of 13 on the Flames in score-adjusted xGF% at 50.19%
Neal was 13th of 13 on the Flames in score-adjusted xGF% at 47.04%
Lucic was 4th of 16 on the Oilers in score-adjusted xGF% at 49.08%
Or even basic goals-scored ratios:
Hathaway was 4th of 13 on the Flames in score-adjusted GF% at 60.53% (totally sustainable
)
Neal was 12th of 13 on the Flames in score-adjusted GF% at 44.56%
Lucic was 8th of 16 on the OIlers in score-adjusted GF% at 44.93%
However you wanna shake it, Lucic on a much worse team, was apparently more effective than Neal was on a much better team. He was higher up his team's shot metric charts and goal ratio charts, and he was even less far down his primary point charts.
I expect Lucic to at least match Hathaway in most of those areas besides GF% (which was hilariously inflated by the 4th line's unstoppable streak to close the season) and if his numbers relative to his team are any indication, it's likely he will outperform Hathaway rather than just match him. And Hathaway was clearly better than Neal last year.
My only question is how disciplined Lucic can be but that's something that's probably followed him his whole career, even in Boston, so I'm not going to lose sleep over it.