Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
I think the only "bad" trades are Lazar and Hamonic.
Elliott for 2016 2nd (Kyrou): Kyrou looks promising so that hurts but Elliott did lead a team to the playoffs before just collapsing. "bad" is probably a little harsh for sure. Worth a shot since Elliott was a proven starter at that point.
Smith for Hickey (Wasn't going to sign), Johnson (meh), 3rd: Really the 3rd was the only real piece of value here, and that's not a huge loss.
Stone for 3rd + 5th: The trade value was fine for a rental...extending to a 3 year deal here was probably the mistake.
Lazar, Kostka for Jokipakka, 2017 2nd (Formenton): Lazar was never worth a second and was a bad trade from the time it happened.
Hamonic for 1st (Dobson), 2nd (Iskhakov), 2nd (Bolduc): Dobson looks like a blue chipper and that being an early first is what makes this trade bad. Iskhakov is okay but actually outperformed by Pettersen in NCAA year 1, Bolduc looks like he's okay but nothing special. Losing that Dobson pick hurts.
I think the Hamilton trade actually in the end probably ends up positive.
In the end that works out to Ferland, 1st (Senyshyn), 2nd (Forsbacka-Karlsson), 2nd (Lauzon), Fox (3rd - Not signing) for Hanifin and Lindholm...which is still a good trade.
Only reason that looks bad was Barzal dropping in that draft and getting selected after Senyshyn...however Hanifin himself was 5th overall in that draft. Plus Flames still got Kylington and Andersson in that draft in the 2nd anyways who are better than the guys they gave up.
So yeah I think the two "bad" trades are Lazar and Hamonic, with Elliott also being "meh"
Lazar, Hamonic, Elliott for 1st (Dobson), 2nd (Kyrou), 2nd (Formenton), 2nd (Iskhakov), 2nd (Bolduc)...yeah that's not great as a whole.
Adding Dobson, Kyrou, and Formenton to this roster in the next two years would look nice for sure.
|
I don't think this is an effective way of judging the deals because it doesn't take into account the time value of picks and prospects. We all like to joke that Edmonton 2nd rounders are basically first rounders, but the 2nd Calgary gave up for Elliott was 35th OVERALL.
2015-2016 was still very much a rebuilding year. The Flames had finished 26th in a 30 team league. They had no business shipping out valuable picks just to 'take a run'. That's how horrible teams are managed. They had no business shipping out picks again the following year just to 'make a run' but did it again. In Fact, they should have been preoccupied with the opposite,
accumulating more picks, in seasons when they had no business trying to compete.
The time value of trading those picks means not having them as prospects in their D+3-5 year when the team is actually in its winning window needs them. As in,
right now.
The time value proposition here is that the Flames could desperately use a young ELC top 6 forward to start this year. Even better would be an 80 point ELC centre that probably would've pushed last year's calgary team over the top.
It's the critical strike for me against this management group. They simply are unable to resist the ownership mandate to do anything to win now, even if it's objectively bad.
The St.Louis blues drafted Vince Dunn in the 2nd round in 2015 and in 2018 (D+3) he was a 35 point elc player who was critical for them during the playoffs.
They drafted Barbashev in the 2nd round in 2015 who was an absolutely critical player for them this year (D+4)
The Flames are their OWN example of this. Look at the team this year.
Andersson D+3
Kylington D+3
This season will be D+3 for Dube.
After that....Pelletier better work out or things are looking rough.
In 2007-2010 the Flames could've REALLY used a good young ELC forward. But unfortunately they hadn't made a 2nd round pick in the preceding 4 years and that player never materialized.
Right in the middle of their contending window they were undercut by terrible management decisions made 3-5 years earlier. Things like shipping out 2nd round picks. Trading down to 'recoup' that pick.
It's not just the individual trades, it's the trades made in context of where the team is at and what their asset situation is.
In the last 3 years Treliving has traded an entire drafts worth of picks and the flames have won a single playoff game.
Absolutely Treliving has some home runs, but the sum total of his trade history is bad imo.
I think he'd probably be better in a situation he was allowed to actually build a roster in, but that situation isn't Calgary.
2 Years from now the flames are going to be paying big ticket money to Andersson and Valimaki and maybe/probably dube, while closing in on the twilight of Gaudreau and Monahan's contracts. They will be desperate for a Vince Dunn, Alex Formenton, Jordan Kyrou or Brandon Carlo or Ryan Donato at which point this board will look back and go "Maybe trading a 3rd round pick for Jim Vandermeer and a 2nd round pick to dump Wayne Primeau weren't very good decisions."