As I have read more about this I am starting to think Tre made it so there is no real downside for the Flames. Nobody wins the trade, but I don't think the Flames can "lose".
- Most of what I have read suggest Lucic has made a more positive impact the last few years then Neal.
-Lucic is a better fit
But what if Neal gets better?!
Neal couldn't keep up with our top (or bottom) six. How is he going to be less of a drag on McDavid?
BUT THE BUYOUT!!!!
In a worst case scenario both players get bought out next year. Because of the Oilers picking up some of Lucic's salary, the net effect is $14.5mm in cap hit for the Flames vs $13.6 for the Oilers. The Oilers hit may be flatter, but that may hurt them more if they are on track to exit their 7th rebuild in 3-4 years, and maybe this one will take.
Worst case the flames are down $1mm, best case they are up $2mm. Sure it might go against the Flames, but odds are it won't really.
I don't buy the argument there had to be a better deal. I am confident Tre took the best deal. I have never heard of a team giving their rival a discount. You might value picks vs cap vs the players name differently then the Flames. But I am certain they have a better understanding of what was on the table.
Based on the Marleau cap dump, the going rate for moving ~$6mm are 1st and 7th round picks. Presumibly term is more expensive, but perhaps Tre valued the Flames next 4 years of picks higher then $5.25/yr in cap penalty (and its really only $4.25 since you would need to replace him even as the 13th skater.)
As time goes on, it should be easier/cheaper to move him then Neal, since he has less real cash owed.
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