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Old 07-22-2019, 10:29 AM   #2106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topfiverecords View Post
But Neal had just one sharp down year. Just getting back to the mean would be a better year.

In your theory, you could assign more to "equal" and "better", with less going to worse because last year was such a sharp heavily skewed decline. But again. There's no success of accurately assigning chances to a prediction here so 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 is just fine. For simplicity, not for professing.
For one year I could see that sure, but the curve is heading south over the course of four years.

But yeah he may have a one year bounce back.
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