Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I think you missed my point.
I'm not professing to predict anything, but you can't assign equal chance to improve, stay the same or get worse to a 32 year old. Hockey players peak at 29 and then get worse as an average every year.
So they aren't equal chance out comes, they are heavily skewed to a decline by a huge data base of hockey players.
Neal was so bad last year he should bounce back a bit, but then I guess you could say the same about Lucic. As a curve though, they're both rolling off a hill and downhill for these contracts.
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But Neal had just one sharp down year. Just getting back to the mean would be a better year.
In your theory, you could assign more to "equal" and "better", with less going to worse because last year was such a sharp heavily skewed decline. But again. There's no success of accurately assigning chances to a prediction here so 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 is just fine. For simplicity, not for professing.