Posting again as I made the mistake of doing so during the period of reactionary hot takes.
What we know is that James Neal is a far better finisher than Milan Lucic, but Milan Lucic is a better two-way player and brings the physical element. We also know that neither of the two are playing in the top six on this Calgary Flames team. The kicker, to me, could be Lucic's penalty differential blackhole.
Given Neal relies on his teammates to get him the puck in order to exploit his phenomenal release, he is a poor fit in the bottom six of any team. On a non-playoff team like the Oilers, he will get the opportunity to play in the top six and possibly with McDavid dishing to him. He can camp in open areas and fire away, of course only when the Oilers have the puck in the offensive zone which won't be very often especially when factoring in his ineffectivness in the defensive and neutral zones.
With Lucic, he rapidly lost his ability to generate offense, and never had a great shot to begin with, but is still reliable defensively and is nearly impossible move from the front of the net once he gets there. In the bottom six he will be just fine as a utility player and nobody can deny he brings a scary physical element few in the league bring. The big detriment with Lucic is even in his later years he is still wildly undisciplined and over the course of the season that adds up significantly if you aren't drawing penalties to offset it - which he doesn't, at all - but this is something Bill Peters should be able to tame to an extent.
If Lucic can reign in his temper while still holding opponents accountable, I think Neal will have the better counting numbers but the Flames will be better off overall. Neal brought nothing to the table here, while Lucic can if he puts his mind to it and controls himself a bit.
Here are their respective time-weighted impacts on teammates for last season isolated, and the last two seasons cumulative. Plus non-fight/misconduct PIM differential.
Code:
2018-19 only
xG% HD% CF% PIM +/-
Lucic +1.62 +3.71 +3.16 -29
Neal -5.65 -5.79 -2.27 0 (Even)
2018-19 and 2017-18
xG% HD% CF% PIM +/-
Lucic +2.63 +4.55 +2.34 -63
Neal +0.42 +2.24 +3.50 +34