I could care less about the 3rd round pick from an actual trade value perspective (since 3rds a relateively worthless). What I think it is much more valuable is the psychological impact it will have on the Oilers brass and fans.
The Oilers GM/coaches are going to give Neal a very long leash with the big 3. Even longer than Lucic got in his 2nd year with the Oilers (when he showed he was nothing more than a bottom 6 player). Even if the Neal experiment is not working and dragging their production down, they will keep forcing it because they want the PR win over Calgary. A 3rd round pick pales in comparison to the propaganda boost they can sell their fans with a "Neal scored 23 goals, Lucic only scored 10. Take that Flamers!"
But what happens if the Oilers gift Neal 1st line and powerplay time, and he only puts up 15 goals. They could end up wasting another year of McDavid and Draisaitl. Heck, even if Neal put ups Chaisson-esque numbers, that will not be enough to move the needle towards being a contending team.
If Neal gets relegated to the bottom 6, then they trade almost suredly becomes a minor win for the Flames. If both players are bottom 6 paperweights, I will take the guy that makes 5.25 million over the guy who makes 6.5 million any day.
I will eat my words if Neal scores 40 goals and carries the Oilers to greatness. But the odds of that happening are incredibly low.
The more I think about this trade, the more I like it.
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