Quote:
Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius
In general, I think everyone will agree this is accurate.
In this case, I think MTL was likely acting on some intel that suggested the CAR owner might not have the capital on hand to pay the bonus, up front... if so, they DID, in fact, swing for the fences as they attempted to steal a primary talent on a reasonable contract... a huge coup, if they ended up being lucky enough for it to work.
I don't get the perspective that MTL made a mistake here. They took a stab at a player, with no risk whatsoever. There is obvious risk involved when signing a player to an inflated contract. Sure, they could have offered an AAV of $11M over that same term, but would that have been a 'win'?? Obviously MTL doesn't think so. At the very least, there would be significant risk involved.
To suggest they made a mistake implies that MTL sees the player as worth more than what they offered... or that were willing to acquire the player "at all costs", which I feel is obviously false. They took a free spin, and it looks like they won't win the jackpot, but they likely weren't expecting to do so.
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I suppose it's a mistake if they really wanted the player as it's very possible if they slightly raise their offer they get the player they covet. As said above it's really hard to get #1 centers and it seems to me the Habs got a little cute in thinking they could front-load a bunch of cash and keep their offer low enough that they only had to give up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick. If they pulled it off it would have been the steal of the year but to me it's classic kijiji buyer mentality of low-balling when a sensible offer will get what you covet. At the very least they should have offered $9 million a season as the two 1st round picks may have been enough to sway Dundon into taking the picks but it seems to me like the classic buyer that really wants something but is just too cheap to pay a fair price for it.