Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
It's a trade that makes sense for the Avs to get that second top 6 c center but I think they gave up too much value.
I really like Kadri as player. He's strong defensively, has a great contract, and plays with some dirt. But he is 29 years old, and hasn't always been a huge ES point producer. Kadri has averaged 30 even strength points per season over the last 6 seasons, and really his big years come on the back of increased PP time.
So a good acquisition for the Avs for sure but they gave up a ton to get him too.
Barrie is a 55+ point d-man that plays 22 minutes a game and can be a dynamic puck mover. Plus they retained 50% so the Leafs are getting him for only $2.75M which is a great deal.
Kerfoot is a 25 year old center that has put up 40+ points in each of his first 2 seasons in the NHL. Plus has had okay production at ES averaging 24 5v5 points through his first two seasons. Probably due for a raise but I feel like he'd get good return in a trade if they flipped him.
So Avs paid a lot to get 3 seasons of Kadri vs. 1 season of Barrie. From a pure value perspective Barrie should be equal to Kadri IMO, and they gave up Kerfoot to make up the term difference. Issue is though that really it's quite possible that Kerfoot at 27/28 will be just as good as Kadri at 31/32.
Dom Luszczyszyn has a player projection model that forecasts an NHL version of win shares and he has it break down as.
Kadri
18/19 - 1.1 (Actual result)
19/20 - 1.5
20/21 - 1.4
21/22 - 1.2
Barrie
18/19 - 2.6 (Actual Result)
19/20 - 1.8
Kerfoot
18/19 - 1.3 (Actual Result)
19/20 - 1.3
20/21 - 1.2
21/22 - 1.1
So based on his model Kerfoot was actually just as valuable as Kadri last year but Kadri still projects to be more valuable long term but it's probably closer than past results may look based on the players age.
Then on top of that the Avs gave up their best trade chip in Barrie as well, retained 50% of his salary, and IMO didn't get enough back for that.
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But the avs were never going to re-sign Barrie and I don't think kerfoot projects to be an NHL centre.
Kadri was the best piece in the market for what they needed and all it cost them was a player they weren't going to sign anyway and a player they poached from college free agency.
Dom's valuations don't take the lifecycle of a team into account. Having a guy under contract during the window to win is more valuable than 2 guys not under contract which was the direction the avs were heading with both players imo.
I would say the same about Calgary. Having Kadri under contract at an exceptionally reasonable rate is more valuable to the flames than many assets in the organization because of the timing of where the franchise is at.
For what was available for a team looking to win now, I think the avs win this trade even though it's a very good deal for both teams.
The avs also got a 3rd pick, a not inconsequential component of the return.