[FurnaceFace]

SportsJunky, that was on the Athletic.

Spoiler!

Projected Contract: $6.8M x 6 years

This is a contract that deeply concerns me. On a six-year deal, Evolving Hockey pegs Duchene to be worth $6.8-million per season, while my model thinks he’s worth $6.7 million. Rumors are swirling that Duchene will command significantly more than that on the open market: north of $9-million per season. It’ll be an extremely tough ask for him to live up to that.

Duchene looks like a tweener top six center – one that would be elite on a second line but arguably outmatched on a top line. He projects to be a first line center over the next two seasons, but not an above average one, ranking 28th in the league per his GSVA (and not that much higher than Kevin Hayes either). Forget $9-million per season over seven years – Duchene likely isn’t worth that salary right now. With Duchene being 28 years old, things only get worse from there and over the majority of a lengthy contract would likely only provide second line value. His rumored ask would be an overpayment.

Duchene has always been held in high regard as one of the league’s better players, but his results have lagged behind his reputation. Last year was a high mark for his production, but it came off a bloated 18 percent shooting percentage that Duchene is unlikely to repeat. He’s blazingly fast and a gifted puck-handler, putting up decent point totals as a result, but he struggles to drive play like you’d expect from a top-flight center (especially one who is excellent at entering the zone with control) due to his defensive struggles. Duchene has only had one season in his career where his team has outshot the other with him on the ice.

Part of that is the fact that Duchene has never really had a strong support system. That’s why his “difficulty” rating is so high: it’s hard to do well when you play for a bottom five teams year-after-year and to his credit, he’s always been positive relative to his team, save for his brief stint in Columbus. It’s possible his raw talent will shine much brighter on a competitive team and that gives reason for optimism in signing him. It’s also possible that slotting him as the top option on those teams was part of the problem.

A team offering him $9 million or more likely expects him to be The Guy, but it’s unlikely he can be that. He’s much better suited as a complementary piece, though it looks increasingly unlikely his new deal will be commensurate of that.